Another Insider Friend Weighs In With Predictions
I’m not vouching for anything but the credibility and experience of the author of this analysis…I still have no opinion about the outcome and I absolutely am concerned that, if this is even close to the result, it all comes down to the very real but completely unquantified “margin of fraud” variable.
Jeff
Here's the updated model:
Trump 297 Harris 241
But that does NOT reveal the actual closeness my model is predicting. Trump wins in Pennsylvania right now by 0.0675%!! (4,614 votes). He wins Wisconsin by 0.1275%!! (4,132 votes) and while it does not matter Trump is up by 0.2775% in Nevada (3,811 votes). If Harris flips both Wisconsin and Pennsylvania (and carries Michigan to retain the "blue wall") she wins with 270 electoral votes. Trump is now up almost 2 points in Arizona. North Carolina and Georgia are trending similarly and will likely not be the determinative factor just as Michigan will likely not determine the winner on the other side.
Senate 52R -48D
Ohio is trending to Moreno over Brown, which when added to West Virginia and Montana and the stabilization of incumbents in Florida, Nebraska, and Texas means we should know upper chamber control relatively early.
House 219 R - 216 D
In contrast, we will not know the House for a LONG time given the tight races in California that take forever to count. Right now the model has 8 D pickups (2 through redistricting in Alabama and Louisiana, 3 in NY, 1 in CA, 1 in OR and an upset in Des Moines) and 6 R pickups (3 in North Carolina due to redistricting, 1 in Michigan, 1 in Washington and the open Porter seat in California, which is presently the closest House race in the country). That is a net gain for Democrats of 2 which is 2 short of majority, thus it truly could go either way.
Here is a printable pdf if you want to follow along:
